Some evidence on the reduction of the disasters impact due to natural hazards in the Americas and the Caribbean after the 1990s
Osvaldo Luiz Leal de Moraes
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Volume 75, 1 June 2022, 102984
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102984
This article identifies the method through which the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and the subsequent frameworks affected the outcomes of Disaster Risk Reduction policies among the countries in the Americas and the Caribbean, particularly in data with high reliability in the databases used for monitoring the progress of these policies. This article will address the following research question: Did the international agenda adopted by the UN for Disaster Risk Reduction after the 1990s lead to a positive impact measured in terms of deaths caused by disasters due to natural hazards in the Americas and Caribbean? The EM-DAT disaster database includes data spanning over the course of 120 years, is long enough to match statistical criteria, and includes information for all countries; therefore, data from this database has been adopted for this research. The analysis was conducted on both regional and national scales, as well as for each natural disaster subgroup adopted by EM-DAT, and the results are divided into two periods: before 1990 and after 1990. On a regional scale, a 140% increase was noted in the number of disasters after the 1990s, whereas the number of deaths decreased by 70%. On the national scale, similar behavior was noted for majority of countries and for all subgroups of di- sasters. In this article, a simple but innovative methodology is proposed for analyzing the impacts in each country, thereby making it possible to exclude some disasters with an anomalous impact, without affecting the analysis and results.
Brazil’s Amazonian deforestation: the role of landholdings in undesignated public lands
Aurora Miho Yanai1,2 · Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro Graça1,3 · Leonardo Guimarães Ziccardi4 · Maria Isabel Sobral Escada5 · Philip Martin Fearnside1,3
Regional Environmental Change
Received: 6 August 2021 / Accepted: 15 February 2022
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01897-0
The impact of deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia is a global concern, and land occupation in public lands contributes to increased deforestation rates. Little is known about the spread of deforestation in landholdings in undesignated public lands located on cattle-ranching frontiers. We use a case of Matupi District, a hotspot of deforestation along the Transamazon Highway in the southern portion of Brazil’s state of Amazonas, where spontaneous squatters and land grabbers are the main actors occupying landholdings. We assessed the advance of deforestation and the spatial distribution of landholdings in relation to the main road and to land categories (e.g., protected areas and undesignated public land). Landholdings up to 400 ha were the majority in numbers (52%) and larger landholdings (>400 ha) were located farther into the forest, contributing to expanding the deforestation frontier. By 2018, 80% of the remaining forest was in larger landholdings (>400 ha), increasing the susceptibility of this forest to being cleared in the coming years. Thus, greater attention should be given to these larger landholdings to control the spread of deforestation. By analyzing the clearing pattern in the landholdings, deforestation monitoring can focus on specifc sizes of landholdings that contribute most to the advance of the deforestation frontier. Brazil’s current trend to facilitating the legalization of illegal claims in undesignated public lands, such as the large and medium landholdings we studied, implies vast areas of future deforestation and should be reversed.
Invasões de terras públicas criam novo polos de desmatamento na Amazônia
A atividade madeireira e a pecuária em grandes áreas de terras públicas não destinadas provocam a expansão das fronteiras do desmatamento na Amazônia. Em estudo inédito publicado na revista Regional Environmental Change, pesquisadores de quatro instituições do Brasil e do Exterior alertam para a falta de monitoramento e de ações do poder público para coibir o avanço do desmatamento ilegal.
A pesquisa foi realizada no distrito de Santo Antônio do Matupi, em Manicoré, localizado às margens da BR-230, a Rodovia Transamazônica, que se tornou um dos grandes polos de desmatamento no sul do estado do Amazonas. Para melhor se analisar a área, os pesquisadores dividiram a região de Matupi em diferentes classes de uso, inclusive terras públicas não destinadas, que são áreas federais ou estaduais para as quais o governo não especificou qualquer uso específico, como terra indígena, unidade de conservação ou assentamento.
“O sul do Amazonas é o palco de um rápido avanço do desmatamento que está saindo do tradicional “arco do desmatamento” e migrando para o norte. A geografia dessa atividade deve mudar radicalmente com a planejada ‘reconstrução’ da Rodovia BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) e a construção da AM-366, que sairia da BR-319 para abrir a vasta área de floresta intacta na parte oeste do Amazonas. Isto abrirá uma enorme área de terras públicas sem destinação para a entrada de grileiros, sem-terras, madeireiras, e outros atores. Os processos estudados no atual trabalho seriam repetidos em grande escala”, explica um dos autores do estudo, Philip Fearnside, do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA).
Na Amazônia brasileira, o aumento da perda florestal está localizado principalmente em novas fronteiras de desmatamento que estão próximas a áreas de pecuária. Em Matupi, por exemplo, os estudos concluíram que os principais desmatadores são os ocupantes de terras com áreas maiores de 400 hectares.
Outro dado observado é que as terras ocupadas por grileiros, posseiros e grandes fazendeiros refletem o baixo nível de monitoramento e governança nesta área do país. De acordo com Philip Fearnside, o “desmatamento ilegal zero” prometido pelo Brasil na COP26 poderia ser alcançado interrompendo o desmatamento, mas, no atual cenário brasileiro, o caminho sendo tomado para cumprir essa meta é a simples legalização do desmatamento ilegal.
“O entendimento dos processos de ocupação e desmatamento nas terras públicas não destinadas é essencial tanto para desenhar melhores abordagens de controle quanto para subsidiar decisões mais acertadas sobre a construção das estradas que deslancham a ocupação e o desmatamento. Os impactos das estradas que abrem essas áreas são muitíssimo maiores do que os Estudos de Impacto Ambiental/Relatórios de Impacto Ambiental e os discursos políticos levam a crer”, destaca Philip Fearnside.
Contato: Philip Martin Fearnside
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA)
philip.fearnside@gmail.com
Highlights
– Estudo constatou rápido avanço desmatamento no sul do estado do Amazonas em terras públicas não destinadas (“terras devolutas”).
– As áreas mais desmatadas são ocupadas por grileiros, posseiros e fazendeiros em ramais partindo da Rodovia Transamazônica.
– Terras públicas correm alto risco de desmatamento devido à especulação fundiária na região e a ausência de políticas públicas que coíbem a grilagem de terras.
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate in Latin America: Knowledge Gaps and the Urgency to Translate Science Into Action
Mônica M. C. Muelbert1,2*, Margareth Copertino2,3, Leticia Cotrim da Cunha3,4, Mirtha Noemi Lewis5,6,7, Andrei Polejack8,9, Angelina del Carmen Peña-Puch10 and Evelia Rivera-Arriaga10
Frontiers in Climate - Predictions and Projections
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.748344
Climate Change hazards to social-ecological systems are well-documented and the time to act is now. The IPCC-SROCC used the best available scientific knowledge to identify paths for effective adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts on the ocean and cryosphere. Despite all the evidence highlighted by SROCC and the key role of the ocean and cryosphere for climate change at all levels, Latin America (LA) faces challenges to take effective action mostly due to socio-economic vulnerability, political instability and overall technical capacities. Countries have adopted diverse actions as the information needed by policy makers has been made available, not necessarily in accessible and inclusive ways. Regional imbalance in economic development, technological level, capacity development, societal involvement, and governmental oversight have contributed to skewed geographical and technological gaps of knowledge on key ecosystems and specific areas preventing effective climate actions/solutions. We analyze the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from the region as proxies to the incorporation of IPCC recommendations. The gaps and opportunities for the uptake of ocean and climate science to political decision making is discussed as five key aspects: (i) climate assessment information and regional policies, (ii) knowledge production, (iii) knowledge accessibility, (iv) knowledge impact to policy, and (v) long term monitoring for decision making. We advocate that the uptake of SROCC findings in LA policies can be enhanced by: (a) embracing local realities and incorporating local, traditional and indigenous knowledge; (b) empowering locals to convey local knowledge to global assessments and adapt findings to local realities; (c) enhancing regional research capabilities; and (d) securing long-term sustainable ocean observations. Local and regional participation in knowledge production and provision enhances communication pathways, climate literacy and engagement which are key for effective action to be reflected in governance. Currently, the lack of accessible and inclusive information at the local level hampers the overall understanding, integration and engagement of the society to mitigate climate effects, perpetuates regional heterogeneity and threatens the efforts to reverse the course of climate change in LA. Local researchers should be empowered, encouraged, rewarded and better included in global climate-ocean scientific assessments.
Doenças transmitidas por vetores no Brasil: mudanças climáticas e cenários futuros de aquecimento global
Bruno Moreira de Carvalhoa Letícia Palazzi Perezb Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveirac Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobsond Marco Aurélio Hortae Andréa Sobralf Sandra de Souza Hacong
Sustainability in Debate / Sustentabilidade em Debate
v. 11, n.3, p. 383-404, dez/2020
10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33985
RESUMO
As mudanças climáticas afetam a saúde humana direta ou indiretamente, e seus impactos são complexos, não lineares e dependentes de diversas variáveis. Entre os diversos impactos das mudanças climáticas na saúde estão a alteração na distribuição espacial de doenças transmitidas por vetores. Nesse sentido, o presente estudo apresenta e discute mudanças na distribuição espacial da adequabilidade climática para leishmaniose visceral, febre amarela e malária no Brasil, em diferentes cenários de aquecimento global. Para a construção dos modelos de adequabilidade climática nos cenários de aquecimento, foi utilizado o algoritmo de máxima entropia (MaxEnt). Os modelos foram baseados em variáveis climáticas geradas pelo modelo climático regionalizado Eta-HadGEM2 ES, no período baseline (1965- 2005) e no cenário RCP 8.5, representando os níveis de aquecimento global de 1,5oC (2011-2040), 2,0oC (2041-2070) e 4,0oC (2071-2099). As três doenças estudadas são amplamente influenciadas pelo clima e apresentaram diferentes padrões de distribuição no País. Em cenários de aquecimento global, a leishmaniose visceral apresentou condições climáticas mais favoráveis à sua ocorrência nas regiões Sudeste e Sul do Brasil, enquanto o clima nas regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste se tornou gradativamente mais adequado para febre amarela. Nos cenários para malária foi observado aumento nas condições climáticas favoráveis à sua alta incidência na Mata Atlântica, onde atualmente ocorrem casos extra- amazônicos. Os cenários aqui apresentados representam diferentes consequências possíveis para o setor de saúde e da adoção ou não de diferentes medidas para mitigar as mudanças climáticas no Brasil, como a redução da emissão de gases de efeito estufa.
ABSTRACT
Climate change affects human health either directly or indirectly, and related impacts are complex, non-linear, and depend on several variables. The various climate change impacts on health include a change in the spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. In this regard, this study presents and discusses changes in the spatial distribution of climate suitability for visceral leishmaniasis, yellow fever and malaria in Brazil, in different global warming scenarios. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to construct climate suitability models in warming scenarios. Models were based in climate variables generated by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES regional model, in the baseline period 1965-2005 and RCP8.5 scenario, representing global warming levels of 1,5oC (2011-2040), 2,0oC (2041-2070) and 4,0oC (2071- 2099). The three diseases studied are largely influenced by climate and showed different distribution patterns within the country. In global warming scenarios, visceral leishmaniasis found more favorable climate conditions in the Southeastern and Southern regions of Brazil, while climate in the Northern and Center-West regions gradually became more favorable to yellow fever. In malaria scenarios, an increase in favorable climate conditions to its high incidence was observed in the Atlantic Forest, where currently extra-Amazonian cases occur. The scenarios presented herein represent different possible consequences for the health sector in terms of adopting (or not) different measures to mitigate climate change in Brazil, such as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.
Human Heat stress risk prediction in the Brazilian semiarid Region based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature
BEATRIZ FÁTIMA A. DE OLIVEIRA1, ISMAEL HENRIQUE SILVEIRA2, RENATO C. FEITOSA1, MARCO AURÉLIO P. HORTA3, WASHINGTON L. JUNGER2 and SANDRA HACON1
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências
Acad. Bras. Ciênc. 91 (03) • 2019
10.1590/0001-3765201920180748
Abstract: Objective: the aim of this study is to map thermal stress risks for human health at the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) in the Semiarid region, for climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Methods: The heat stress conditions were defined by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) indicator and by the average number of annual days in which the WBGt values exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference period. the WBGt was estimated for the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 (intermediate) and 8.5 (pessimistic) for the period 2011-2090 comparing to the period of reference (1961-2005). Results: the projections show that for the pessimistic scenario practically all municipalities of the SFRB region can reach values of WBGt that indicate a high risk for heat stress in the period 2071-2099. For this same scenario and period, the municipalities of the lower and Under-average regions may present values of WBGt above the 90th percentile of the reference period in more than 90% of the days/year. Conclusions: these results show that, if the emission of greenhouse gases continues in the present proportions, some municipalities of the SFRB region may present a high risk for heat stress affecting the work capacity and the practice of physical exercises.
Mortality Risk from Respiratory Diseases Due to Non-Optimal Temperature among Brazilian Elderlies
Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson; Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveira; Rochelle Schneider; Antonio Gasparrini; Sandra de Souza Hacon
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
2021, 18, 5550.
doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18115550
Abstract: Over the past decade, Brazil has experienced and continues to be impacted by extreme climate events. This study aims to evaluate the association between daily average temperature and mortality from respiratory disease among Brazilian elderlies. A daily time-series study between 2000 and 2017 in 27 Brazilian cities was conducted. Data outcomes were daily counts of deaths due to respiratory diseases in the elderly aged 60 or more. The exposure variable was the daily mean temperature from Copernicus ERA5-Land reanalysis. The association was estimated from a two-stage time series analysis method. We also calculated deaths attributable to heat and cold. The pooled exposure–response curve presented a J-shaped format. The exposure to extreme heat increased the risk of mortality by 27% (95% CI: 15–39%), while the exposure to extreme cold increased the risk of mortality by 16% (95% CI: 8–24%). The heterogeneity between cities was explained by city-specific mean temperature and temperature range. The fractions of deaths attributable to cold and heat were 4.7% (95% CI: 2.94–6.17%) and 2.8% (95% CI: 1.45–3.95%), respectively. Our results show a significant impact of non-optimal temperature on the respiratory health of elderlies living in Brazil. It may support proactive action implementation in cities that have critical temperature variations.
Impacto do aquecimento global nos anos potenciais de vida perdidos por doenças cardiorrespiratórias em capitais brasileiras
Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobsona Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveirab Letícia Palazzi Perezc Sandra de Souza Hacond
Sustainability in Debate
v. 11, n.3, p. 331-345, dez/2020
10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33989
RESUMO
Este estudo tem o objetivo de avaliar o impacto futuro do aquecimento global nos Anos Potenciais de Vidas Perdidos (YLL) para as doenças cardiovasculares em adultos (≥ 45 anos) e respiratória em idosos (≥ 60 anos). Trata-se de um estudo ecológico, que inclui todas as capitais do Brasil. Nas projeções futuras, foram usados os dados de temperatura do Modelo Regional Eta-HadGEM2S para o cenário RCP 8.5. Foram estimadas as frações de YLL atribuíveis à temperatura para os níveis de aquecimento 1,5°C, 2,0°C e 4,0°C. Em números absolutos, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo apresentaram a maior contribuição de YLL atribuível ao aquecimento global. Campo Grande e Cuiabá foram as capitais mais impactadas pelo aquecimento global de 1,5oC comparado ao período baseline (1961-2005) para os dois desfechos avaliados. Os resultados desta pesquisa sugerem que o impacto da exposição à temperatura sobre o YLL tende a crescer conforme aumenta o nível de aquecimento global.
ABSTRACT
This study aims at assessing the future impact of global warming in the Potencial Years of Life Lost (YLL) for cardiovascular diseases in adults (≥45 years) and respiratory diseases in the elderly (≥60 years). This is an ecological study, which includes all the capitals of Brazil. Future projections used temperature data sourced from the Eta-HadGEM2S Regional Model for the RCP8.5 scenario. YLL fractions attributable to temperature were estimated for global warming scenarios of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 4.0°C. The results showed that, in absolute numbers, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have presented the largest YLL contribution attributable to global warming among the capital cities. Campo Grande and Cuiabá were the most impacted capitals by a global warming of 1.5oC compared to the baseline period (1961-2005), both for respiratory diseases in the elderly and for cardiovascular diseases in adults. Results of this research suggest that the impact of exposure to temperature on YLL tends to increase as the level of global warming increases.
The Atlantic Forest. History, Biodiversity, Threats and Opportunities of the Mega-diverse Forest.
VALE, MARIANA M.; Arias, Paola A. ; Ortega, Geusep ; Cardoso, Manoel ; Oliveira, Beatriz F. A. ; LOYOLA, RAFAEL ; Scarano, Fabio R. . Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest: Best Climatic Models, Predicted Changes and Impacts, and Adaptation Options. In: M. C. M. Marques; C. E. V. Grelle. (Org.).
The Atlantic Forest. History, Biodiversity, Threats and Opportunities of the Mega-diverse Forest
Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2021, v. , p. 253-267.
The Atlantic Forest is one of the 36 hotspots for biodiversity conservation worldwide. It is a unique, large biome (more than 3000 km in latitude; 2500 in longitude), marked by high biodiversity, high degree of endemic species and, at the same time, extremely threatened. Approximately 70% of the Brazilian population lives in the area of this biome, which makes the conflict between biodiversity conservation and the sustainability of the human population a relevant issue. This book aims to cover: 1) the historical characterization and geographic variation of the biome; 2) the distribution of the diversity of some relevant taxa; 3) the main threats to biodiversity, and 4) possible opportunities to ensure the biodiversity conservation, and the economic and social sustainability. Also, it is hoped that this book can be useful for those involved in the development of public policies aimed at the conservation of this important global biome.
Endemism increases species’ climate change risk in areas of global biodiversity importance.
MANES, S. ; Costello, M. J. ; Beckett, H. ; Debnath, A. ; Devenish-Nelson, E. ; Grey, K. ; Jenkins, R. ; Khan, T. M. ; Kiessling, W. ; Krause, C. ; Maharaj, S. S. ; Midgley, G. F. ; Price, J. ; Talukdar, G. ; VALE, M. M
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
Volume 257, May 2021, 109070
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109070Get rights and content
Climate change affects life at global scales and across systems but is of special concern in areas that are disproportionately rich in biological diversity and uniqueness. Using a meta-analytical approach, we analysed >8000 risk projections of the projected impact of climate change on 273 areas of exceptional biodiversity, including terrestrial and marine environments. We found that climate change is projected to negatively impact all assessed areas, but endemic species are consistently more adversely impacted. Terrestrial endemics are projected to be 2.7 and 10 times more impacted than non-endemic natives and introduced species respectively, the latter being overall unaffected by climate change. We defined a high risk of extinction as a loss of >80% due to climate change alone. Of endemic species, 34% and 46% in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and 100% and 84% of island and mountain species were projected to face high extinction risk respectively. A doubling of warming is projected to disproportionately increase extinction risks for endemic and non-endemic native species. Thus, reducing extinction risks requires both adaptation responses in biodiversity rich-spots and enhanced climate change mitigation.
Global land-use and land-cover data for ecologists: Historical, current, and future scenarios.
VALE, M. M.; LIMA-RIBEIRO, MATHEUS DE S. ; ROCHA, TAINÁ
Biodiversity Informatics
v. 16, p. 28-38, 2021.
https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.06.442941
Land-use land-cover (LULC) data are important predictors of species occurrence and biodiversity threat. Although there are LULC datasets available for ecologists under current conditions, there is a lack of such data under historical and future climatic conditions. This hinders, for example, projecting niche and distribution models under global change scenarios at different times. The Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2) is a global terrestrial dataset at 0.25° spatial resolution that provides LULC data from 850 to 2300 for 12 LULC state classes. The dataset, however, is compressed in a file format (NetCDF) that is incompatible with most ecological analysis and intractable for most ecologists. Here we selected and transformed the LUH2 data in order to make it more useful for ecological studies. We provide LULC for every year from 850 to 2100, with data from 2015 on provided under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5). We provide two types of file for each year: separate files with continuous values for each of the 12 LULC state classes, and a single categorical file with all state classes combined. To create the categorical layer, we assigned the state with the highest value in a given pixel among the 12 continuous data. The final dataset provides LULC data for 1251 years that will be of interest for macroecology, ecological niche modeling, global change analysis, and other applications in ecology and conservation. We also provide a description of LUH2 prediction of future LULC change through time.
A macroecological approach to evolutionary rescue and adaptation to climate change
ALEXANDRE F. DINIZ-FILHO, JOSÉ ; SOUZA, KELLY S. ; BINI, LUIS M. ; LOYOLA, RAFAEL ; DOBROVOLSKI, RICARDO ; RODRIGUES, FABRICIO ; LIMA-RIBEIRO, MATHEUS DE S. ; TERRIBILE, LEVI C. ; RANGEL, THIAGO F. ; BIONE, IGOR ; FREITAS, RONIEL ; MACHADO, IBERÊ F. ; ROCHA, TAINÁ ; LORINI, MARIA L. ; VALE, MARIANA M. ; NAVAS, CARLOS A. ; MACIEL, NATAN M. ; VILLALOBOS, FABRICIO ; OLALLA-TARRAGA, MIGUEL A. ; GOUVEIA, SIDNEY
ECOGRAPHY
31 January 2019
https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04264
Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population-level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the adaptive potential (based on genetic adaptations, phenotypic plasticity and behavioral adjustments for physiological responses) of local populations has been a less studied mechanism affecting species’ responses to climatic change so far. Here, we discuss and apply an alternative macroecological framework to evaluate the potential role of evolutionary rescue under climate change based on ENMs. We begin by reviewing eco-evolutionary models that evaluate the maximum sustainable evolutionary rate under a scenario of environmental change, showing how they can be used to understand the impact of temperature change on a Neotropical anuran species, the Schneider’s toad Rhinella diptycha. Then we show how to evaluate spatial patterns of species’ geographic range shift using such models, by estimating evolutionary rates at the trailing edge of species distribution estimated by ENMs and by recalculating the relative amount of total range loss under climate change. We show how different models can reduce the expected range loss predicted for the studied species by potential ecophysiological adaptations in some regions of the trailing edge predicted by ENMs. For general applications, we believe that parameters for large numbers of species and populations can be obtained from macroecological generalizations (e.g. allometric equations and ecogeographical rules), so our framework coupling ENMs with eco-evolutionary models can be applied to achieve a more accurate picture of potential impacts from climate change and other threats to biodiversity.
Climate change is likely to affect the distribution but not parapatry of the Brazilian marmoset monkeys ( spp.)
BRAZ, ALAN GERHARDT ; Lorini, Maria Lucia ; VALE, MARIANA MONCASSIM
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
11 December 2018
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12872
Parapatric distributional patterns can arise from abiotic or biotic factors, or from dispersal barriers. Climate change can potentially affect parapatry by changing species’ potential geographic distribution, and thereby widening or shrinking contact zones. Here, we study the effects of climate change on all six species in the genus Callithrix, a group of small-sized Neotropical primates that is distributed parapatrically in eastern Brazil, allegedly due to biotic interactions.